中新社發自華盛頓報導，報告指出，中國大陸等6大新興經濟體因為經濟成長速度明顯快於已開發國家，到2025年世界經濟格局將完全改變。人民幣將與美元、歐元一道成為世界主導貨幣。
這份題為「2011年全球發展地平線--多極化：新全球經濟」的報告指出，到2025年，巴西、中國、印度、印尼、南韓和俄羅斯將佔全球經濟成長的一半以上，國際貨幣體系將不再由單一貨幣主導。
報告預測，2011年到2015年新興經濟體平均每年經濟成長4.7%，遠超過已開發國家的2.3%，儘管歐元區、日本、英國、美國仍在世界經濟成長中發揮核心作用。到2025年，新興經濟體佔全球經濟產出的比例，將從目前的37%增加到45%。
世界銀行首席經濟學家林毅夫說，「新興經濟體快速崛起已經驅使經濟中心在發達國家和發展中國家之間轉移，這是真正的多極世界。新興經濟體的跨國公司通過不斷擴大的南南投資和外資流，成為重塑全球產業的力量。國際金融機構需要快速適應，跟上步伐。」
報告的作者之一戴拉米說，「下一個10年，中國的經濟規模及其公司和銀行快速全球化可能意味著人民幣更重要的作用。2025年最可能的全球貨幣情形是，圍繞美元、歐元和人民幣為中心的多元貨幣。」
世界銀行估計，美國、歐元區和中國大陸將成為世界經濟3大主要的「增長支柱」，並透過貿易、金融和技術發展促進全球經濟成長。這將為現存以美元為中心的體系，帶來更穩定的國際貨幣體系。
2011-05-18 10:13 中央社
The rise of the euro and China's yuan will likely spell the end of the US dollar's dominance of the global financial system by 2025, a World Bank study released concludes.
But it also said the International Monetary Fund's basket-based pseudo-currency, the SDR or special drawing right, could also gain weight as countries and businesses seek to reduce the risk of foreign-exchange shifts.
The study says China will have to internationalise the yuan, officially known as the renminbi, to better support its industrial and trade development, and that within just over a decade the currency will become a powerful alternative to the euro and the dollar.
With the emergence in global industry and trade of new, large economic powers - particularly China, Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Russia - "one sees that their currencies - particularly the renminbi - will inevitably play a more important role in the international financial system," the study says.
"A larger role for the renminbi would help resolve the disparity between China's great economic strength on the global stage and its heavy reliance on foreign currencies."
The study, Multipolarity: The New Global Economy, said the euro is already offering a credible alternative to the dollar.
"Its status is poised to expand, provided the euro area can successfully overcome the sovereign debt crises currently faced by several of its member countries and can avoid the moral hazard problems associated with bailouts of countries within the European Union."But it said that other countries with less powerful currencies will continue to see policy choices constrained by how the key currencies are managed and traded.
"Unless a country's borrowing and trade are concentrated in one of the three key currencies, instability in exchange rates between the key currencies will lead to fluctuations in competitiveness and the value of assets and liabilities, impeding that country's economic policy making and potentially jeopardising the welfare of its residents."
"Some of the challenges facing the international monetary system could possibly be managed through increased use of the SDR," it added.
The IMF's special currency, created in 1960, is already used as an international reserve asset and a unit of account, though not in trade or other forms of finance.
It is based on the dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and Britain's pound.
"Enhancing the role of the SDR in the international monetary system could help address both the immediate risks to global financial stability and the ongoing costs of currency volatility," the study concluded.
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